Cost-effectiveness analysis in R using a multi-state modelling survival analysis framework: a tutorial

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modelling approach. Alongside the tutorial we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue this multi-state modelling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach if the Markov property does not hold. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model a covariate that represents patients’ history is included allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create two common methods of visualising the results, namely cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate, to accommodate parametric multi-state modelling which facilitates extrapolation of survival curves

Briefing: UK Ministry of Defence Force Protection Engineering Programme

The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory sponsored, QinetiQ-led Force Protection Engineering Research Programme has two main strands, applied and underpinning research. The underpinning strand is led by Blastech Ltd. One focus of this research is into the response of geomaterials to threat loading. The programme on locally won fill is split into four main characterisation strands: high-stress (GPa) static pressure–volume; medium-rate pressure–volume (split Hopkinson bar); high-rate (flyer plate) pressure–volume; and unifying modelling research at the University of Sheffield, which has focused on developing a high-quality dataset for locally won fill in low and medium strain rates. With the test apparatus at Sheffield well-controlled tests can be conducted at both high strain rate and pseudo-static rates up to stress levels of 1 GPa. The University of Cambridge has focused on using one-dimensional shock experiments to examine high-rate pressure–volume relationships. Both establishments are examining the effect of moisture content and starting density on emergent rate effects. Blastech Ltd has been undertaking carefully controlled fragment impact experiments, within the dataspace developed by the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge. The data from experiments are unified by the QinetiQ-led modelling team, to predict material behaviour and to derive a scalable locally won fill model for use in any situation

Natural bounds on herbivorous coral reef fishes

Humans are an increasingly dominant driver of Earth's biological communities, but differentiating human impacts from natural drivers of ecosystem state is crucial. Herbivorous fish play a key role in maintaining coral dominance on coral reefs, and are widely affected by human activities, principally fishing. We assess the relative importance of human and biophysical (habitat and oceanographic) drivers on the biomass of five herbivorous functional groups among 33 islands in the central and western Pacific Ocean. Human impacts were clear for some, but not all, herbivore groups. Biomass of browsers, large excavators, and of all herbivores combined declined rapidly with increasing human population density, whereas grazers, scrapers, and detritivores displayed no relationship. Sea-surface temperature had significant but opposing effects on the biomass of detritivores (positive) and browsers (negative). Similarly, the biomass of scrapers, grazers, and detritivores correlated with habitat structural complexity; however, relationships were group specific. Finally, the biomass of browsers and large excavators was related to island geomorphology, both peaking on low-lying islands and atolls. The substantial variability in herbivore populations explained by natural biophysical drivers highlights the need for locally appropriate management targets on coral reefs

Method for compression molding articles from lignocellulosic materials

Flakeboard or particle board panels and other composite articles made from wood flakes or other particulate lignocellulosic materials having a relatively high internal bond and improved resistance to moisture are made from flakes or particles which have a moisture content of at least 15%. A catalyst capable of accelerating the reaction between the flakes or particles, the binder and water is applied to the flakes or particles prior to the addition of a moisture-tolerant particle board binder, such as an organic polyisocyanate. A mat of the resulting furnish is compression shaped under pressure and at a temperature less than 250° F. for a time period sufficient to form a composite article of the desired shape and/or dimensions.https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/patents/1088/thumbnail.jp